Binary Comparisons, mistaking noise for signal and the futility of silly straight lines on graphs.

A vg blog post from Bulldozer.

Make a measurement, one measurement, of any personal metric you might fancy… right now. Next, plot your sample point on a graph where time is the independent variable on the x-axis:

Next, even though you most likely have no prior measurements to plot, reflect on the path that got you to “*now*“. You’re likely to concoct a smooth, logical, linear narrative like this:

However, because of our propensity to be, as Nassim Taleb says, easily “*fooled by randomness*“, you’re most likely to have traveled one of the ragged, noisy paths plotted on this graph:

Because of the malady of linear-think, you’re most likely to envision the future as a continued journey on the smooth, forward projection of your made-up narrative. Good luck with that.

Thanks for the reblog TP! Much appreciated.

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