Weather and climate

20120925-171826.jpgFreaking out because your KPIs aren’t working like they should? Here’s a tip: Allow the passage of time to occur.

Just as it’s always darkest before dawn, data is always worse before it gets better. All you have to do is wait. But don’t sit on your bum waiting. Look busy! Do busy-work! things will get better.

Nothing to do with what you’ve done of course, but things change all the time. If you live in the UK then it’s rainy today but yesterday was sunny. Tomorrow might be cloudy. Has anything actually changed though? Nothing except the weather on that particular day. It’s still Autumn. Some people look outside, see its raining or cold and sneer “Where’s your global warming gone then eh?

This is the difference between weather and climate.

This is the difference between noise and signal.

This is the difference between being fooled by randomness and seeing the big picture.

People listen to weather forecasters, but not to climate scientists. With one you look out the window. Raining! Bad. Sunny! Good.

With the other you’ve got to look past that at something you can’t immediately see. You might need something more than a hand to stick out the door to see if it’s raining
You might need a simple chart.

I’m never going to do a post about control charts, I don’t have the patience. Luckily this man has done a few, you should have a look. Really, I’m never going to do one.

Still confused or doubt the theory? Allow the passage of time to occur. Take a good look at people reacting to this.  They’ll think stuff has changed. Brownian motion is not change, it’s just the heartbeat of the universe.

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